The qualifying is done and the race is on for Louisiana’s Fourth District Congressional race. On the Republican side three candidates have qualified: Chris Gorman of Shreveport, Dr. John Fleming of Minden and Jeff Thompson of Bossier City.
The Democrats in the race are John Milkovich, Paul Carmouche, Willie Banks, Jr. and Rev. Arti$ Ca$h.
Two independents have qualified, Chester T. Kelley (website from ’06) and Gerard Bowen, Jr.
This is a complicated race. Chris Gorman seems to have a substantial lead on the Republican side. If a runoff is necessary, my prediction is that it will be between Gorman and Fleming. I just don’t see Thompson making the cut, despite the endorsement from Jim McCrery. Of course, I could be wrong – it may be a Gorman-Thompson runoff.
Paul Carmouche has a lot of name recognition, having served 30 years as Caddo District Attorney. Milkovich also is a well-known local attorney. Ca$h is a pastor and ‘community activist’, whatever that is, and will not draw enough support for a runoff. Mr. Banks does not have the exposure in the populous Shreveport-Bossier City area to gain significant support.
The sure win for the Democrats would be a match-up between John Milkovich and any of the Republicans. The two independents will draw from the Republican base, and if Milkovich, a pro-life evangelical with a lot of support from local fundamentalists, gets the nod on the Democratic side, the Republicans are in real trouble.
Milkovich can pull support from Gorman that Carmouche could not touch. I would predict a Milkovich victory over any of the Republican candidates.
There is still time for the situation to change, and anything can happen. After all, this is Louisiana politics.
With less than two months to go until the primaries, however, I would keep my eye on Milkovich and Gorman.